Bonus Issue: Oscars 2024
Currently on the films that I think will and should win an Oscar.
🤔 Wait, but why does this even matter?
Sure, the Academy Awards can easily be dismissed as just another event where 'rich people pat themselves on the back.' I get that, I really do. But for me, they serve as a spotlight on art, recognition, and hope.
This year’s nominees bring us stories about the betrayal of the Osage Nation, confronting destiny after emigrating from South Korea, finding beauty in the world as a toilet cleaner in Tokyo, and the boots-on-the-ground perspective of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These stories come from across the globe and are meant not just to entertain but also to evoke empathy and reflection. Without the accolade of an Oscar, many of these films would go unseen.
Because the Academy is comprised of ~10,000 members in the industry, these winners are being selected by their peers for their work—people who understand the time, sacrifice, and army of people required to make a film. Ke Huy Quan, last year’s Best Supporting Actor winner, started his career at age 12 in blockbusters Indiana Jones and The Goonies but didn’t get recognized until 40 years later.
Most importantly, as the Academy Awards make efforts to become more inclusive and diverse, they’re displaying a wider range of representation to inspire others to see themselves as their heroes and expand their belief in what’s possible. From last year’s Lead Actress winner Michelle Yeoh's acceptance speech:
For all the little boys and girls who look like me watching tonight, this is a beacon of hope and possibilities. This is proof—dream big—and dreams do come true. And ladies, don’t let anybody tell you you are ever past your prime. Never give up.
🔥 My Takes
Who will win: Maestro
Who should win: Maestro
Why: While the Academy tends to select the winner based on the most obvious makeup, I do think ‘Maestro’ deserves this one. Bradley Cooper plays Leonard Bernstein from ages 25 through 70 and is fully believable at each stage due to the stunning work by Kazu Kiro. But, I would love it if ‘Society of the Snow’ took this one to encourage more people to see that film.
Who will win: Barbie
Who should win: Poor Things
Why: I think 'Barbie' and 'Poor Things' will split Costume Design and Production Design, so I’m leaning toward 'Barbie' for this one just because the costumes are nostalgic, iconic, and memorable.
Who will win: Poor Things
Who should win: Poor Things
Why: I’m giving the edge to 'Poor Things' here since 'Barbie' had existing worlds to guide the film’s production design, whereas 'Poor Things' was a creative, detailed, comprehensive world that was wholly unique.
Who will win: Oppenheimer
Who should win: The Zone of Interest
Why: ‘The Zone of Interest’ is nothing without its sound and completely deserves this. However, I don’t feel that enough Academy members saw it to warrant enough votes and that bomb scene in Oppie was just so damn intense.
Who will win: “What Was I Made For?”
Who should win: “What Was I Made For?”
Why: Billie and Finneas can do no wrong, as this song stands on its own without any help needed from Barbie. Plus, they did a ton of interviews sharing the story of how the song came together, so I think there’s a little recency bias here too.
Who will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Who should win: Past Lives
Why: I think many Academy members are upset that ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ wasn’t France’s submission for Best International Feature so they’re going to want to award it here. Plus, this film is basically a courtroom drama that’s 90% dialogue so a writing nod makes a lot of sense here.
Who will win: Barbie
Who should win: Barbie
Why: ‘Barbie’ isn’t taking much else home tonight, so this category seems to be the only way the Academy can overcome their Best Director snub and award Greta and Co. some recognition for their $1.4 billion box office success. However, ‘American Fiction’ does have a ton of momentum behind it and the Academy loves meta films (this being a film about writing) so I see a world where ‘Barbie’ walks away empty-handed.
Who will win: The Boy and the Heron
Who should win: Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse
Why: ‘Spider-Man’ already won Best Animated for ‘Into the Spider-Verse’ and we know there is going to be a third film, so I feel that they’ll give the award to Miyazaki just in case ‘Heron’ is his final film.
Who will win: The Zone of Interest
Who should win: Society of the Snow
Why: This tends to go to the film doesn’t win Best Picture. And again, because ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ isn’t present here, that pretty much guarantees ‘Zone of Interest’ as the winner and marking a first for the UK.
Who will win: 20 Days In Mariupol
Who should win: 20 Days In Mariupol
Why: This film is extremely important and brave, and given the ongoing conflicts in the world, it is more relevant and eye-opening than ever.
Who will win: Robert Downey Jr.
Who should win: Mark Ruffalo
Why: Robert Downey Jr. has been nominated three times but has never won. Like Nolan, this is his year and he’ll have a charming and charismatic acceptance speech.
Who will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Who should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Why: If your betting app accepts Oscar bets, bet on this because this is a lock. Da’Vine is the heart and soul of ‘The Holdovers’.
Who will win: Cillian Murphy
Who should win: Cillian Murphy
Why: The Academy loves films about real people and with a Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG win coming into the Oscars, Murphy is the clear favorite.
Who will win: Lily Gladstone
Who should win: Emma Stone
Why: This will be the closest and most exciting award. There’s a strong case and compelling story for every nominee. Emma Stone had a career-defining performance in ‘Poor Things’. But Stone already has an Oscar for La La Land and since the Academy loves a good story, I feel that it’s going to Gladstone as that would make her the first Indigenous Best Actress winner.
Who will win: Christopher Nolan
Who should win: Christopher Nolan
Why: While Nolan’s films have received a total of 49 nominations, he has never won outright. This is his year, especially with his recent PR push.
Who will win: Oppenheimer
Who should win: Poor Things
Why: Historically, the Best Director winner tends to inform the Best Picture winner. Since 'Oppenheimer' is a historical biopic, the Academy’s favorite genre, that’s just icing on the cake for Nolan to finally claim the industry’s biggest accolade.
Thanks for being here.
— Justin