Issue 34: Oscars 2025
Currently on the films that I think will and should win an Oscar.
🤔 Wait, but why does this even matter?
The Oscars are often dismissed as a night of Hollywood excess, and I totally get that. But for me, a film fan and aspiring filmmaker, they serve as a spotlight on art, recognition, and hope.
This year’s nominees bring us stories of a young sex worker forging her own path, a visionary architect reshaping the world, a new Pope navigating faith and power, an enigmatic 19-year-old talent on the rise, a fading celebrity grasping for relevance, and a misunderstood green-skinned witch redefining villainy. These films aren’t just entertainment. They encourage us to empathize, reflect, and see the world from other perspectives. And without the attention of the Oscars, many of these films might never find the audience they deserve.
With nearly 10,000 industry professionals voting in the Academy, the Oscars are an acknowledgment from those who understand the craft, sacrifice, and collaboration behind filmmaking. More importantly, as the Academy continues a push toward diversity and inclusion, the awards are becoming a platform for stories that might once have been overlooked. They expand representation and prove that the future of film belongs to everyone.
🔥 My Takes
Who will win: Dune: Part Two
Who should win: Dune: Part Two
Why: Dune: Part Two is a cinematic achievement that pushes the boundaries of technical innovation. Each sequel is appointment-viewing and epitomizes why seeing movies in theaters is important. Its massive scope, immersive world-building, and epic battles solidify its place as one of the defining films of our time. Much like Star Wars before it, Dune: Part Two will inspire a new generation of filmmakers, proving that visionary storytelling can shape the future of cinema.
Who will win: Dune: Part Two
Who should win: Dune: Part Two
Who should actually win: Civil War (snubbed)
Why: See Visual Effects.
Who will win: Wicked
Who should win: Nosferatu
Why: Wicked is based on a musical, which is based on a book, which is based on a movie, which is based on a book—so there’s plenty of source material to draw from for inspiration in these costumes. I find that a bit of a bummer, especially considering last year’s winner, Poor Things, was so unique and imaginative. However, I’m not sure where else Wicked is the front-runner, it’s just too successful and 🎵 pop-uuu-lar 🎵 to go home empty-handed. So I think this is a category where it stands a strong chance.
Who will win: The Substance
Who should win: The Substance
Why: The Substance is a film that not only utilizes hair and makeup but is also a story very much about hair and makeup. It heavily relies on prosthetics, practical effects, and puppetry, using 5,500 US gallons of fake blood to depict Demi Moore’s transformation. It's rare for a horror film to be nominated, and it would be refreshing to see one win, especially since horror movies are among the most profitable and successful genres in cinema.
Who will win: “El Mal” - Emilia Pérez
Who should win: “Like A Bird” - Sing Sing
Why: What once was an Oscar darling with 13 nominations—the most for a non-English film and the second most of all time—Emilia Pérez is now on the tail end of a PR disaster. Despite that, I still feel there is some momentum behind it, especially in a lackluster year for Original Song (and Actress in a Supporting Role). With “El Mal” featured in every Zoe Saldaña appearance, it’s the most memorable song of the bunch and is bound to stick in the Academy’s head, taking the win.
Who will win: I’m Still Here
Who should win: n/a
Why: I haven’t seen I’m Still Here because it’s not widely available, but its growing momentum makes it a strong Oscar contender. With Fernanda Torres also nominated for Best Actor and Emilia Pérez facing the aforementioned PR mess, the competition seems to be shifting in its favor. Given its trajectory, I’m Still Here feels poised to take home the award, but I wouldn’t be upset if Flow got it, highlighting the importance of visuals over dialogue in the medium.
Who will win: The Brutalist
Who should win: The Brutalist
Who should actually win: Challengers (snubbed)
Why: The past three years have featured Best Original Score winners from epic, dramatic Best Picture nominees (Dune, All Quiet on the Western Front, Oppenheimer), and I don’t see that changing here. The Brutalist score complements its storytelling and enhances the film's atmosphere.
Who will win: No Other Land
Who should win: No Other Land
Why: I saw No Other Land at the Denver Film Festival, and it was a profoundly moving and eye-opening experience—everyone left the theater in tears. Its powerful, timely story makes it one of the most important films of the year. Even after winning many awards this season, the fact that no U.S. distributor has picked up the film—made by a collective of Palestinian and Israeli activists—raises concerns about whether enough Academy members have seen it to give it their vote.
Who will win: The Brutalist
Who should win: Dune: Part Two
Why: With Greig Fraser winning the Oscar for Dune: Part One, Nosferatu likely out due to its horror genre, and Emilia Pérez facing its own drama, The Brutalist stands as the most compelling choice—and rightfully so. Made for just $10 million and shot in only 33 days, its visual achievements are stunning. That opening shot of the Statue of Liberty and the Italian quarry scene will stay with me for a long time.
Who will win: Anora
Who should win: Conclave
Why: Ah, the category that confuses 'Best' and 'Most' every year. Often, this award goes to the loudest edited film, with recent winners including Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer. However, I don’t feel that the nominees this year are overly edited, so I’m defaulting to Anora, as it continues to make a run for Best Picture.
Who will win: Wicked
Who should win: The Brutalist
Why: With its standout feature on Architectural Digest, Wicked has made a compelling case for why it deserves this award. Its cultural impact and undeniable charm make it a top contender. Wicked’s production designer, Nathan Crowley, has previously been nominated for The Prestige, The Dark Knight, Interstellar, Dunkirk, and Tenet, but has yet to win. This will be his year.
Who will win: The Wild Robot
Who should win: The Wild Robot
Why: Pixar hasn’t won this category since 2020 with Soul, and the Academy has recently favored unique stories with The Boy and the Heron and Pinocchio. The Wild Robot combines a charming narrative with innovative animation, making it a standout contender this year. Given the trend toward recognizing original storytelling—and the fact that Inside Out has already won—this film is more than deserving of the Oscar.
Who will win: Kieran Culkin
Who should win: Kieran Culkin
Why: A Real Pain was my favorite film of Sundance 2024 and one of the best of the year. Kieran Culkin has dominated the awards season, delivering an incredible performance alongside Jesse Eisenberg, with their on-screen chemistry extending into a strong PR push. Culkin is honest, humble, and undeniably deserving, and his long career in the industry will likely resonate with the Academy. If you could only place one bet on the night, put your money here.
Who will win: Adrien Brody
Who should win: Adrien Brody
Why: The Academy loves a biopic, so Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan feels like a no-brainer. However, they likely see his long career ahead as an opportunity for future recognition. Ultimately, this feels like Adrien Brody’s moment to complete his comeback story. His performance in The Brutalist was demanding, and he delivered.
But as much as the Academy loves a biopic, they love a compelling storyline even more. Brody currently holds the record as the youngest Best Actor winner. If Chalamet pulls off an upset, not only will it be the biggest surprise of the night, but—you guessed it—he’ll become the youngest actor to win, taking home both the trophy and the record.
Who will win: Zoe Saldaña
Who should win: Zoe Saldaña
Why: See Original Song.
Who will win: Demi Moore
Who should win: Mikey Madison
Why: Mikey Madison’s bold performance in Anora has gained significant momentum. However, as unfair as it may be, the Academy often favors awarding a veteran in recognition of their long-standing career and a strong comeback story. While Madison is undoubtedly deserving, this award is likely going to Demi Moore, whose contributions to the industry have been substantial.
Who will win: Anora
Who should win: A Real Pain
Why: Best Picture and Screenplay often go hand in hand, which is why I’m leaning toward Anora, but I’m really hoping A Real Pain takes home the win. A Real Pain was my favorite film of Sundance 2024, with a smart and tight script that’s truly deserving. Jesse Eisenberg has been making a strong media push, elevating Kieran Culkin and Emma Stone along the way, which I believe will resonate well with the Academy. A Real Pain is attempting to be the first winner in Original Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination since Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in 2004.
Who will win: Conclave
Who should win: Nickel Boys
Why: Conclave deserves an Oscar for its sharp, tension-filled script elevated by an all-star ensemble cast. The screenplay has already won at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, USC Scripter Awards, and Golden Globes. However, I wouldn't mind an upset here, as Nickel Boys stands out for its unique direction and interpretation of the original material. And a win here would provide Ramell Ross with the resources to continue creating unique, impactful stories.
Who will win: Anora
Who should win: The Brutalist
Who should really win: Dune: Part Two
Why: Four of the last six years have seen Best Director align with Best Picture. While I don’t necessarily agree with that trend, it seems likely to happen again this year, with Anora taking both prizes. With Tangerine, The Florida Project, and Red Rocket on his résumé, it feels like the Academy will reward Sean Baker for his contributions to the industry and his knack for highlighting the lives of marginalized people.
Who will win: Anora
Who should win: Conclave
Why: I much preferred Conclave over Anora, but based on the momentum heading into the weekend, Anora seems to have a strong lead. Screenplay or directing often go hand in hand with Best Picture, so if Anora wins one of those, I think it’s a lock for Best Picture. Sean Baker has been running a strong campaign for indie and low-budget films, and with indie darlings Nomadland, CODA, and Everything Everywhere All at Once being recent Best Picture winners, it feels like the stars are aligning for Anora to take home the prize of the night.
Thanks for being here.
— Justin